The total number of infected people (blue) , as reported in Tracking every case of COVID-19 in Canada, are graphed against time given by the number of days after the first of March 2020. Also an exponential model (red) , based on real data, is graphed for comparison.
It can be seen that although, at the start the trend is close to an exponential increase, however in the last few days the number of infected people tends to slow down in Canada and the overall trend is lower than the expoenential model.
Going into April, We would expect that the overall trend start to flatten out as the increase in the number of infected people will be smaller.
The Rate of Change
The percent change defined as
\[ 100 \times \dfrac{\text{Total Number of Infected on day D} - \text{Total Number of Infected on day D-1}}{\text{Total Number of Infected on day D-1}} \]
is also graphed below (scroll down). The rate of change gives the number of new infected as a percentage of the total number of the infected the previous day and is a good indicator that shows at what rate those already infected are infecting the others.
The rate of change started to decrerase from around the end of March. For the numnber of infected to stabilize, this rate of change has to decreases to zero in order to reach the maximum number of infected.
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