Poisson Probability Distribution Calculator

An online calculator to calculate the Poisson probability distribution and the probabilities of "at least" and "at most" related to the binomials.

Poisson Probability Distribution

The Poisson probability distribution calculator computes the probability that an event \( A \) occurs \( x\) times over a period of time (or space) knowing that this event occurs at an average event happens an average \( \lambda \) times over that period.
\[ P(X = x) = \dfrac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^x}{x!} \]
The calculator below calculates the Poisson probability distribution \( P(X = x)\) for any value of \( x \ge 0 \), given the average \( \lambda \). The calculator below helps in investigating these distributions in various situations.
The same calculator also calculates the probability of "at least" \( x \) given by \( P(X \ge x)\) and "at most" \( x \) given by \( P(X \le x)\)

Example 1
An event A occurs at an average of 4 times over a period of 24 hours.
a) What is the probability that event A occurs 5 times over a period of 24 hours?
b) What is the probability that event A occurs at most 5 times over a period of 24 hours?
c) What is the probability that event A occurs at least 5 times over a period of 24 hours?

Solution to Example 1
The average \( \lambda = 4 \) is over a period of of 24 hours. The probability to be calculated is over the same period. Hence
a)
\( P(X = 5) = \dfrac{e^{-4}4^5}{5!} = 0.15629 \)
b) At most 5 times means \( x \) is either \( 0, 1, 2 , 3, 4 \; \text{or} \; 5\) or \( x \le 5 \)
\( P(\text{at most 5 times}) = P( X = 0 \; or \; X = 1 \; or \; X = 2 \; \)
\( or \; X = 3 or \; X = 4 \; or \; X = 5 ) \)
Using the binomial formula, the probability may be written as
\( P(X \le 5) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) \)
\( + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) \)
\( = 0.018315 + 0.073262 + 0.146525 + 0.195366 + 0.195366 + 0.156293 \)
\(= 0.78513\)
c)
At least 5 times means \( x \) is equal or greater that 5.
\( P(\text{at least 5 times}) = 1 - P(\text{at most 4 times}) \)
\( = 1 - ( P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) ) \)
\( = 1 - (0.018315 + 0.073262 + 0.146525 + 0.195366 + 0.195366 ) \)
\( = 0.37116 \)

How to use the calculator

1 - Enter \( n \) and \( p \) and \( x \) and press "calculate". \( n \) and \( x \) are positive integers and \( p \) real satisfying the conditions:
\( \lambda \gt 0 \) , \( x \ge 0 \)

\( \lambda \) =
\( x \) =
\( P(X = x) \) =
\( P(X \ge x) \) = (at least)
\( P(X \le x) \) = (at most)



More References and links

Poisson Probabilities Examples and Questions
Binomial Probabilities Examples and Questions
addition rule of probabilities
multiplication rule of probabilities
probability questions
classical formula for probability
mutually exclusive events
Introduction to Probabilities
sample space
event
elementary statistics and probabilities .

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